In God We Trust; All Others Bring Data


(Quote from the late W. Edwards Deming)

“I know that is your opinion,” stated a manager, “but where are your data?”

“I don’t trust the data,” responded the specialist.  “I rely on my gut-feelings.”

In the era of big data, analytics and algorithms, how important are your instincts?  Back in the day, Ford Motor Company’s Edsel model was probably the most researched automobile of the time.  Still, the product was a colossal failure.  You might say big data failed.

A recent Fortune Knowledge Group study reveals that six in ten executives rely on gut feel and soft factors when making big decisions.

Recently, Google quickly and accurately predicted the spread of flu by tracking people’s online searches.  Soon, Amazon will send you products before you order them because they will be able to predict what you want.

Do you want your doctor to rely on years of schooling and experience?  Or, would you prefer a computer-generated diagnosis based on a hundred million cases?

Of course, effective decision makers will continue to use both data and instinct.  But I suggest that decisions improve as we rely more on data and less on gut-feel.

I’m reminded of the Dilbert comic strip quote, “Where do you stick your head when you listen to your gut?”

What do you think?

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